P/01 ORBWATCH

Read the sky.

The intelligence layer: five models that read what an object did, why, and whether it is a threat, from public element sets alone. No telescopes, no radar, no credentials.

05 models / 02 products / 08 models Public CelesTrak element sets
The models

Five models, each with the benchmark it is graded on.

Every figure below is a benchmark result, not a claim about the interface. Open any model for the mechanism behind it.

  1. /0.1 Maneuver detection 84%caught · 0 false alarms

    Tells you that an object fired its engine, when, and how hard, without tasking a sensor. It works by subtracting the drift physics explains, the Earth's equatorial bulge (J2) and atmospheric drag, from the object's public element-set history. Whatever residual Δv is left is somebody's engine.

  2. /0.2 Intent classification rule-based
    fully auditable

    Names what the burn was for: station-keeping, an orbit raise or lower, a rendezvous, or collision-avoidance. Each call carries a confidence band and a written rationale from a rule-based model, so an analyst can check the reasoning rather than take it on faith. No black box to trust.

  3. /0.3 Pattern of life 1,039baselines pre-event

    Flags an object the moment it breaks its own routine, judged against its own prior history rather than a fleet average. Dormant-then-active is the classic early warning. The model is learned rather than hand-tuned: scored on held-out data by an exact port of the public SPLID evaluator, it more than quadruples the F2 of the fixed-rule baseline it replaces.

  4. /0.4 Proximity & rendezvous watch 100%seeded shadowing

    Watches for something deliberately holding station beside one of your assets. It separates a purchased geometry from an incidental pass and from a benign co-orbiting formation. One-sidedness is the discriminator, shown under Evidence.

  5. /0.5 Collision risk screening 0.963ROC-AUC · Brier 0.010

    Ranks which close approaches are worth an analyst's morning. Screening is calibrated against 162,634 ESA close-approach reports, scoring 0.963 ROC-AUC and 0.010 Brier on that set. Public element sets carry no covariance, so this is a labeled screening prior, not an operational probability of collision.

Request a briefing

Bring us an object. We will tell you what it did.

Book a technical briefing and we will run ORBWATCH against a mission set of your choosing, end to end, with the evidence attached.